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• #14126 Paxker315 addikt donat_sz #14104

  Új Válasz 2025-01-22 11:13:32 #14126

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  Paxker315

  addikt

  válasz donat_sz #14104 üzenetére

  igazából csak ezt a pár sort gondoltam, tanulságos átfutni:

  "A couple of good sources for this, there’s the Dimson, Marsh, Staunton in the 2014 Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook, they ran this analysis on 21 countries with continuous stock market histories and their database from 1900 to 2013. And they find a cross sectional correlation of negative 0.29 between real equity returns and real per capita GDP growth. So there it is, negative relationship. And then there’s a 2012 paper with past Rational Reminder guest, Jay Ritter, Is Economic Growth Good for Investors? He looked at 19 primarily developed markets from 1900 to 2011. And he found a similar as Dimson or Staunton, a cross-sectional correlation between the compound real return on equities and the compound growth rate of real capita GDP, real per capita GDP, -0.39 was the cross-sectional correlation that he found.
  So similar, but he also looked at 15 emerging market countries for the 24-year period, 1988 through 2011. And he found a even more negative cross-sectional correlation of -0.41. So all that evidence pretty clearly suggests that countries with stronger economic growth, at least historically have had lower stock market returns. "

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